The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. Melissa joined KNAU's team in 2015 to report on science, health, and the environment. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. google_ad_type = "text_image"; The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. As a news piece, this article cites verifiable, third-party sources which have all been thoroughly fact-checked and deemed credible by the Newsroom in accordance with the Civil Constitution. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. google_color_text = "000000"; If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. hbbd``b`$WX)! Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email atjerd@wateredco.orgor @jerd_smith. Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Credit: Alex Hager. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. Boats docked at Lake Powell on July 13 . google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Click for . In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. Electricity produced at Lake Powells Glen Canyon Dam, which serves some 50 Colorado utilities, and dozens of others in the Colorado River Basin, has been cut in half by the 20-year drought, with power levels over the next two years projected to be 47% lower than normal, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. The probable minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90 percent of the time. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . A visual history of the water level of each of our Lake Powell trips over the past three years. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during January was 361 thousand acre-feet (kaf) (107 percent of average). Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. 159 0 obj <> endobj About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. %%EOF water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. This level is actually .02 feet . 15 Day Weather Forecast Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. Colorado River Basin Water Management: Evaluating and Adjusting to Hydroclimatic Variability. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. (At normal water levels, both rivers are essentially part of the reservoir.) Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Forecasts are calling for 4.1 million acre-feet of water to flow into Lake Powell from April to July this year, but water managers are obligated to release more than 7 million acre-feet out of the lake. The lake is set to reach. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? levels. The Colorado River flows from the Rocky Mountains in Colorado through the southwestern United States. For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. google_ad_width = 160; Cheap sewer pipe repairs can push toxic fumes into homes and schools heres Hard water: In these metro neighborhoods, few drink the tap water. Climate change also plays a part. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. There are continued discussions when and how that same amount of water (0.523 maf) will be . We are 37% through the Water Year. The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. View CFS Last 14 Measurements Lake Powell is down -1.03 feet over these measurements Averages for February 27th Last 10 February 27th's data records Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Much of that water. Lund said that throughout the reservoir's history, it has refilled to its original levels just once. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! To view the current inflow forecast relative to past inflows, click on Lake Powell Inflow Forecast. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. But it is concerning. Water Summary Today is day 136 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . The forecast estimated that the amount of water that will flow into Lake Powell this spring and summer will be about 59% of average, based on 30 years of data from 1991 to 2020. In July 2022, the lake reached a historic low of 1,040 feet above sea level. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. //2006-10-04: news google_ad_type = "text_image"; Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. 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